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What gets us most excited as an Apple analyst today is the business model transformation Apple is undergoing, shifting toward a model focused on installed base monetization rather than unit growth, which in our view, increasingly argues for a valuation more commensurate of a subscription-like business įactored in as part of a “bull case valuation,” if Apple launched a hardware subscription plan, Morgan Stanley could see a case for AAPL at $230. Woodring’s really into the hardware subscription idea, though. It seems they’re the same list, though the later list is delivered with stronger conviction.

A Possible hardware subscription service.

“Re-accelerating” growth for Apple Services.

It figured into Morgan Stanley’s note a little over a week ago listing “ 5 idiosyncratic tailwinds” that should push Apple in the next six-months to nine-months. If that “iPhone subscription program” talk sounds familiar, it should. …if we look beyond the near-term, we see a catalyst- rich event path over the next 12 months that is underappreciated by investors, including reaccelerating iPhone and Services growth, record gross margins, two new product launches, and the potential introduction of an iPhone subscription program. …weaker consumer electronics spending, a challenging macro backdrop, FX headwinds, iPhone production shortages, and lingering COVID restrictions are headwinds that are likely to result in Apple’s first fiscal year of revenue and EPS declines since 2019.Īfter that, cue the sun.

Basically - the near-term for Apple looks weak, but past that it’s sunshine and lollipops. Apple 3.0 ran part of a note from Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, which was also written up by AppleInsider. Here’s one you don’t hear that much these days: A financial firm has raised its 12-month price target on Apple shares. Morgan Stanley Ups AAPL Price Target to $180 One firm raises its price target on Apple shares, two tales of Apple manufacturing in India, and three countries get better Apple Maps.